TMTPOST — CurrenTly, The Most Discussed Topic in the Tech World is Undoubtedly The Deepseek. Nalyses. Here, I would like to share some personal insights in the hope of providing a clearer personpective.
The Path of Technology Innovation
Having worked in Silicon Valley for 40 Years, I have gained a propound undertnding of technology. ING for a Gold Mine in a Vast Mountain Range. Although some point out that there are gold mines in the mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, and The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, and The Mountains, The Mountains, the Mountains, The Mountains, The Mountains, Exact local remain unknown. As a result, many exclotors rush in, eACH Searching in Different Directions.
Looking back at the development of Artificial Intelligence, from the Breakthrough in Image Recognition in 2012 to the Later Applications in the Field of Go, We Can der it it it it it it is it it. Mainly Focused on Image and Video Recognition.
In 2017, Google Introduced the Transformer Model, Focusing On Language Translation, PARTICularly Between English and French. , Google Did Not Delve Deeper Into the Field, as the Industry Widly Beliefed that the Language Translation Market Was Limited and Did Not compare to the portal of image and video recography.
However, OpenAI TOOK A DIFFERENT APPROACH, Recogning the Vast Potential in the Language Domain. Ully Community to research and dueopopment. Despite Its Resource Limitations at the time, and the Stark Contrast in ManPower and Financial Resources Compared to Giants Like Google and Microsoft, Openai, with its sharp insight, released chaatgpt in November 2022.
It was like discovering a small design the well-tropden path, where OpenAI Ventured in, only to unexpectedly found a Gold mine, shameing the entire industry. Y Practitioners Quickly FLOCKED to the Field, Turning It into a Newlit Avenue. “
Since then, the Industry Has Continuously Scaled Up Pre-Trained Models and Data, But Graduality Lost ITS DIRECTION. During this process, Openai Made Another UTION —Reasoning Learning. Research Found that everything excelmely laarge model size, by carefully training reasoning about Mber 24, 2024, Openai Released The O1 Model, Once Again Opening a New Path for the Industry.
In this exploration, Global Teams, Especially Those from the US, Invented Many Tools — Like Sharper Machetes and Shovels —That Heelped Occelerate Progress The Thorny Path of Explration.
DeepSeek’s Open Source ITS Success by Serendipity
DeepSeek can be considerted a team driven by technology ideAls. They insist on sound source, which constrasts with the USual APPROACH of Industry O tend to keep their core technologies confidence. Intead, deepseek chooses to level global wish technology deverted forward.
In technology, leading companies often with their core technologies, while this that are lagging to promote Progress Through OPEN Source, Such as MRTA (Formerly Facebook) in ITS Competition with Openai. Public Welfare. Entrepreneurs from Alashan, for Example, WOULD UNDERSTAND This Better — Sometimes, Even Without Knowing Will Return, then ll choose to control.
Open Source Culture and Deepseek’s Contribution to AI
The united States has a strong open-Source Culture, Such as the Open-SOURCE SOFTWARE Linux and Wikipedia, Whist Has Becomes The World’s Dictionary. E, China Tried To Replicate the Models, But the Results WERE POOR. in China, The Open-Source Culture Is Not Deeply Rooted, So for Deepseek to Persist in Open Sourcing itS Quality Outcoming the World Is Rare and Commentable. Is Reflects The Influice of the American Open-Source Community on Young Chinese Programmer and Entrepreneurs, Thought This influence remains relatived, dostically.
The Core Figure of the Team, LIANG WEENFENG, Began Applying Machine Learning to Quantitative Investing as Early as 2013, and the Team Has Accumulated Over A Decade of Experien CE in the Field of Machine Learning. in Terms of Technical Sensitivity, They May Have Started Defeeloping Large Language Models USING The Transformer Architecture Well BeFore Chatgpt, PossiBly as Early as 2019. Meanwhile, The Team Has Gathered some Top Talent, AN D in their Technological Explration, They used Advanced Tools Developed by Previous Generations to Discover A New Path Based on Reasoning Models -Completely Automated Training, Which Diffrs from Openai’s Manual Training Approach and Helps Reduce Costs.
This automated reasoning trailing is similar to the alphaGo Zero Model. After AlphaGo Defeated Lee Sedol, Google Engineers Tried to Make Alpha Learn From SCR Atch with relying on Human Experience. As a Result, in a Short Period, AlphaGo Zero Surpassed the Older Version of AlphaGo That Had Defeated Lee Sedol. DeepSeek has delved delding deeply into this path and the achieved Success. Although its constribution is not as significant as the. Breakthroughs of Chatgpt and Reasoning Training, it can still be considerized the third movent constribution sincegptpt, ReduCing Reasoning Costs By Two Orders of Magnitude.
From a technicaldScape Perspective, Although Deepseek’s Achievements Have Narrowed The Gap Between China and the US in Artificial Intelligence Tech NOLOGY, The Overall AI LandScape Between China and the US Remains Unchanged.
In Several Key Areas of ai Technology, China Still Faces A SIGNIFICANT GAP With the us in the Chip Sector; Reakthroughs in the Past Decade -From 2012’s Alexnet, 2017’s Transformer, 2022’s Chatgpt, to Subsequent Breakthroughs Like Chain-of-Thought, RAG, and Reasoning Training — Have Occurred in the us the footany Mistral Has Made A Fewtributions, and Deepseek’s Contribution AC counts for about 5%, which is alream an impressive acheievement.
DeepSeek’s Success, to some extens, is serentipitous. In a scientific exploration process full of channel, Many Teams Explore Different Directions, and eventual Y, One Team Will Achieve a Breakthrough first. China PossesSes A Vast Ai Foundation and An Extensive Pool of Enginers, and After 30 Years of Development, has Established A Solid Basis for Communication with the West. TheReface, the Emergeence of a Team Like Deepseek in China Sing. This is akin to the Soviet Union Successfully Launching ITS First Artificial Satellite in 1957, A Feat Built on the Technologal Openness The us Offered to the Soviet During the Two World Wars, Which Enabled The Soviet to Establish A Strongno Logical base. However, Once the Soviet Union Closed ItSELF, its technological capabilities rapidly declined.
The Prospects of AI, Still in its Early Stages
In the Commercial and Stock Market Sectors, The Development of Artificial Intelligence is Closely Tied to Nvidia. NVIDIA WOULD Be the CHIP GIANT of the Ai Era. At that time, its market value was around $ 30 Billion, and since then, its value has increased nearly a huhdredfold.
Recently, the us stock Market has seen a significant decline, partly beCause the Market Beliefs that the efficience impositions will res E demand for computing power, and this lower dependence on chips like this from nvidia. However, this is a static way of Thinking. It’s similar to a PhenomenonnonononononononononnTh-CENTURY BRITISH ECONOMIST JEVONS: After the Efficience, MPTION DID Not Decrease; Instead, It Significantly Increased. This Phenomenon is Known as the “Jevons Paradox.” The Underlying Logic is that although the coal consumption per steam engine decrease, beCAUSE The STEAM Engine beCame more eConomical and efficient, PEOPLE BeANGAN USING It In MO reAADING TO A Large Increase in the Total Number of Steam Engines, And Ultimately, Coal Consumption Rose Instead Of falling.
SimiLarly, The Reduction in the Cost of AI Models Will Drive The WideSpream Expansion of AI Applications, and the Demand for Chips Will Increase Accordly. Past, One of the Major Barriers to AI Applications was their High Cost. Take ChatGPT, for Example : Use need to pay for each query, and as the complexity of the question increases, The Computational Cost Grows Exponentially. IKE “who was the FIRST EMPEROROROROROROF the TANG DYNASTY?” Can be Completed Instantly, whereas A Complex Question Like “What are the core reasons for the tang-song transition? Undredfold or more.
Today, ai has advanced to the stage where it can act as an intelligent agent, providing comprehensive services to users. For exmple, if a user is planning to travel to b razil, ai can function like a personOnal assistant, helping with everything from itinerary planning To Hotel Reservice and TICKET BOOKINGS. The ComputationAl Cost of This Process Could Be Thousands Greater than a Simple Q & A. s high as 10,000 rmb, use may may hesitate; but if the count drops to 100 RMB, USERS will use it without hesitation. TheReface, Low-Cost Ai Models Willd Dramaticly Expand the Application SCENARIOS for AI, Potentially Leading to a LD, ThousandFold, or Even Ten Thousandfold Increase in USAGE.
As for deepseek, there is ben excess about its chip usage and when there are issues with data theft. However. Cost Per Access is only 1/30 of Openai’s While Still Generation A Profit, It Shows that deepseek has been exceptionally effective in Cost Control. As for Other Concerns, there is currently no concrete evidence, and the judgment on its technology Al value and market impact is not cracial.
WHETHER DeepSeek Can Continue to Achieve Major Breakthroughs in the Future Remains Uncertain. As they team’s profile groups, The High Demands FROM THE GOVERNMENT A ND The High Salaries Offered by Large Companies May Negatives Pure Technical PURSUIT. WHETHER It can stay true to its technology Ideals and Continue to Push Forward in Such An ENVIRONMENT IS A Question Worth Pondering.
The Prospects of the Ai Wave Are Vast, and we are still in its early Stages. Over the next decade or event two decades, ai is expected to experience rapid grewth. S Imilas to the Development of the Internet in the Late 1990s and Early 2000s, Ai is point for significant breakthroughs over the next ten to twoEars.
More Importantly, How Great is the Potential of AI? CurrenTly, Major Labs Including Openai, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft Are Argent Artificing Artification General Intelligence (Agi). Humans. Based on Current Research Progress, Agi May Emerge in the Next Two to Five Years. If Agi Becomes A Reality, its market size will be enormous, Assing the Internet Market, Reaching Trillions or EVEN TENS of Trillions of Dollars.
DeepSeek’s Technological Breakthrough FURTHRTHER PRAT IS Possible to Achieve Agi at a Lower Cost. If the Cost of AI is too high, EVEN SURPASSSING HUMAN LA BOR COSTS, ITS Application Range Will Be Limited. This is Similar to How Man’s Production Lines in China Still Use Human Labor Rather than Robots, Because Labor Costs Are Lower. Only when the Cost of Robots is far, Seek has mail significant control.
