Text | Zhigu Trends
Recently, Beijing and Shenzhen have ended up “grabbing” college students, setting off another new climax of “grabbing people”.
Who is China’s “largest province to grab people”? Which provinces are full of gravity and which provinces are constantly “losing blood” out? To see clearly the strength of each province in capturing personnel, one must observe a core indicator:
Net population inflow
This indicator eliminates the influence of natural population growth factors, and can better reflect the truth about the “war to grab people” than simply counting the growth of permanent population.
Based on the China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook, I sorted out the net population inflows in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions across the country from 2015 to 2023, and made many unexpected discoveries:
Guangdong still ranks the top, but Zhejiang is in an extremely fierce upward momentum, and it has already shown a situation of “two heroes standing together”.Only 7 provinces have net population inflows exceeding 1 million, namely: Guangdong, Zhejiang, Xinjiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Ningxia and Chongqing.
Interestingly, during the same period, the net population outflow of 7 provinces exceeded 1 million:Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hunan, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Gansu.
Why did the three economically strong provinces in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu show obvious differentiation in the strength of seizing personnel, and Shandong actually experience negative growth?
Why did the vast northwest and western hinterland usher in a large influx of foreign population, and Xinjiang, Ningxia, Sichuan and Chongqing all ranked among the top 7?
Why is the central population also facing the risk of population outflow? Is there any turning point in the three northeastern provinces with population collapse?
01
For a long time, the cross-provincial flow of China’s population has“Peacock flies southeast”gather from the central and western regions to the southeast coast.
Judging from the situation reflected in the data, the fundamentals of this population migration have begun to undergo tremendous changes. First of all, the eastern economic provinces have not all grown.
From 2015 to 2023, Shanghai’s net population inflow was -9,000, Beijing was -253,000, Shandong was -374,000, and Tianjin was -682,000. Against the backdrop of the country’s population gradually entering negative growth, even a large economic province/city may not attract net population inflow.
Among them, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces still performed the most, with a cumulative net population of 14.088 million. Among the 11 provinces with net population inflows across the country during the same period, the proportion was as high as 62.4%, more than half of the country, and the siphon was unparalleled.
However, if you look closely at the data changes every year, you will find:
The net population inflow in Zhejiang remained high, while the net population inflow in Guangdong fell significantly.
Before 2018, Guangdong will be able to maintain a net population inflow of more than 1 million every year, firmly occupying the position of the “first province” of population siphon. But it has begun to show a “cliff-like decline” since 2019, and it is even more so in 2022.Net outflow of 438,000 peopleThe situation is quite rare. There will be some rebound in 2023, and it remains to be seen.
Jiangsu is somewhat similar to Guangdong. Since 2017, net population inflow has gradually declined to tens of thousands per year, and it has only returned to the level of an average annual inflow of more than 300,000 in 2021.
In contrast, Zhejiang has been quite stable in population in the past decade, and began to take over Guangdong in 2019 and became the number one province in net population inflow.
As a major province with private economy, Zhejiang is the first in the country in terms of quantity and quality of private enterprises. In addition, the digital economy is developed, small and micro enterprises represented by e-commerce have attracted a large number of young people.
In contrast, Guangdong and Jiangsu, which are mainly manufacturing, are more susceptible to external factors such as the foreign trade environment.
At the same time, Zhejiang, as a “pilot demonstration zone for common prosperity”, performed outstandingly in “equal wealth”.In 2024, all permanent populations in 11 cities in Zhejiang achieved positive growth.Even the permanent population of Zhoushan City, the most remote city, has increased by 3,000.
The rise and fall of the eastern provinces in grabbing people also illustrates a truth:Even a top student cannot win.
02
In central provinces, from the perspective of the flow of people, they are also under great pressure.
Data shows that the six central provinces (Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui) are still the main outflow places, with a total outflow of 6.95 million people.
There are occasional factors. For example, Hubei Province lost 1.856 million people in 2020, which is directly related to masks.
But overall, except for Anhui’s fundamentals that have improved significantly in recent years, the other central provinces have not curbed the outflow of population.
From a regional perspective, the six central provinces are in the Yangtze River Delta to the east, the Pearl River Delta to the south, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to the north, and there is also a rising Chengdu-Chongqing region to the west. Being siphoned by the four strongest metropolitan areas in China, it is not easy for the central region to retain its population.
At present, the central provinces have not yet developed an economic growth pole that can match the above four metropolitan areas. Most provinces can only adoptStrong provincial capitalThe model of this, gathers the strength of the whole province to support a super city.
For example, Henan Province,In 2023, Henan’s net outflow of 477,000 people, but Zhengzhou achieved a net inflow of 146,000 people.The situation in Hefei, Anhui and Changsha, Hunan is similar. The population of provincial capitals has continued to grow, while the population of other cities has been outflowed or stagnated.
The “Strength Provincial Capital” strategy has indeed played a “ballast stone” role in stabilizing the population of central provinces. With the improvement of provincial capital cities and the development of industries, perhaps the population mobility of central provinces can achieve a “balance of income and expenditure” in the future.
03
Surprisingly, the Northeast, which has been “bloodless” for many years, has begun to rise in the past two years, and the population in Liaoning and Jilin provinces have achieved net inflow.
This is an amazing change.
From the overall data, between 2015 and 2023, the three northeastern provinces (Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang)Cumulative net outflows of 8.294 millionis still the area with the most severe population loss. Considering that the fertility rate in the Northeast is also at the bottom in the country, the population crisis is still severe.
However, the good news is that the net inflow of population in Liaoning and Jilin in 2023 was 86,000 and 37,000, respectively, reversing the continued outflow since 2011.
In the past 2024, not only the “Southern Little Potatoes” have brought the Northeast Cultural Tourism to a huge traffic, but the Northeast’s economy has also ushered in a round of recovery. In 2024, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang’s GDP increased by 5.1%, 4.3% and 3.2% respectively.
The revitalization of the Northeast is a long-term plan, and population is a key indicator for observing the revitalization process.
04
Although the vast western hinterland has not paid much attention for a long time, it has become a “small highland” of population inflow in recent years.
Especially in Xinjiang and Sichuan,With net population inflow data of 2.725 million and 1.43 million, it ranked among the top five provinces with net population inflows from 2015 to 2023.
This is also quite surprising. The western region is a traditional “underdeveloped area”, especially Xinjiang, which gives people the illusion of being deserted.
In fact, when observing the population flow in the western region, in addition to industries, more policy factors should be considered.Xinjiang and Sichuan have become the most important hubs of China’s internal circulation and a key area for coordinating development and security.
As a country with insufficient oil and gas resources, Xinjiang can be said to support China’s energy independence. The discovery of a series of large oil fields in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin has alleviated our anxiety about “lack of oil and gas”.
After the “dual carbon” goal was proposed,The Northwest, which has vast wind and light resources, once again shoulders the heavy responsibility of energy transformation.In the first 11 months of 2024, the installed installed wind power solar energy in the five northwestern provinces (Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Ningxia) reached about 280 million kilowatts, an increase of 37% year-on-year.
The vigorous new energy infrastructure in the northwest will bring a large number of employment opportunities, which will obviously affect the flow of people.
As the “big rear” in Chinese history, Sichuan is even more of a “hexagonal warrior”: the only major grain-producing province in the west, a key military scientific research and production base, a province with large energy and mineral resources, and hydropower and natural gas production are the first in the country…
Sichuan is the only one who has obtained the current national land space plan approved by the state.“Strategic hinterland”This important positioning province. As the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle becomes a Chinese urban agglomeration, Sichuan’s status has also been comprehensively improved and has been given a series of major strategic support.
Beyond population movement, there is one data that is also subtle. Among the top ten provinces with personal income tax revenue in 2024,Sichuan and Guangdong are the only two provinces that have achieved positive growth in personal income tax revenue.
Generally speaking, personal income tax income often reflects the changes in the income of middle-class people in a region. This shows that Sichuan could still release enough wealth effects while the national economy was under general pressure last year.
Wherever wealth flows, people will also flow.
05
The flow of population among regions reflects the fate of countless ordinary people.
When the overall urbanization rate tends to be saturated,The population will mainly gather in large cities and core metropolitan areas.Most small and medium-sized cities will usher in a population reduction and even gradually decline.
Many scholars believe that China today may have approached this “critical point”.
In the future, whether it is the priority of infrastructure construction, the allocation of public services such as medical care, education, and housing, or even the stay and departure of positions within the system, it may be related to the flow of urban population.
Choosing the right city with potential can avoid many detours. The tens of millions of people “voting with their feet” are behind the “big reshuffle” between cities, which has far-reaching impact.
In the era of stock, people are the most important resource, and all development opportunities will be closely related to this.
References:
1. Zeping Macro China’s large population migration 2024: From urbanization to metropolitan agglomeration and urban agglomeration
2. Sohu’s first-tier cities are in a hurry! Beijing and Shenzhen launch the most fierce “snatch war” in history
3. Zhigu Trend Two major signals appear! Xinjiang and Sichuan are entrusted with important tasks, and behind it is a shocking change
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